November 29, 2022

Pittsburgh Panthers (7-4, 4-7 ATS)

The Pitt-Miami series has been one-sided since November 30, 1963, eight days after JFK’s assassination. The Panthers won that day, but they wouldn’t win again in South Florida for almost exactly 51 years.

On November 29, 2014, Pitt won 35-23. It is his only triumph with the Canes since those dismal days following the national tragedy.

This weekend, the Panthers will agree on both sides of the ball.

In points-per-game margin over his past three games, Pitt is scoring .179, No. 21 in college football over that stretch. On defense, he’s netted 0.219 PPA in his previous three tilts, and only 10 programs in the country have been stingier.

Panthers RB Israel Abanikanda is featured in our Pittsburgh vs. Miami odds and picks. (AP Photo/Chris Seward)

The Panthers aren’t in better shape than Miami at quarterback, with Kedon Slovis. But they shine in the backfield, where 5-foot-11, 215-pound second guard Israel Abanikanda has been roughing up his foes.

He notably tattooed Virginia Tech for 320 yards on 36 runs and six touchdowns. He broke the school record of 303 that Tony Dorsett set at home against Notre Dame in 1975.

It sparked a five-game blitz in which he totaled 810 yards and 12 touchdowns. His 1,320 yards on the year rank 11th in the country.

This is what Miami will have to deal with. Pitt has defended the run better than anyone in the country in his last three games, giving up just 1.1 yards per dash. Miami, meanwhile, is in the bottom half of the country in allowing 4.6 yards per carry.

This match will bring the Canes out of their misery of the season.

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Miami Hurricanes (5-6, 2-9 CEP)

What happened to that Hurricanes program in the wider world of sports? Former Mario Cristobal came home and lured all those experienced coaches and talented players to The U.

It was supposed to be the Southeastern version of USC’s incredible turnaround in the Southwest. Not. Same. Close.

The worst aspect is how the Canes have been so dismal at home, losing their last four Hard Rock games 45-3 (against Florida State), 45-21 (against Duke), 27-24 (against North Carolina) and 45-31 (towards central Tennessee).

None of them were cover, for those in the stands used to betting on The U.

Worst of all, Miami was favored by almost 26 against Middle Tennessee, who returned a sweet +1750 money line to their fans. Those who risked $100 on the Blue Raiders moneyline were rewarded with $1,750.

What went wrong? Tyler Van Dyke. Last season, he became the first Miami quarterback since Bernie Kosar to throw for at least 325 yards in three straight games. It gave hope for the future.

In eight games this season, however, the 6-foot-4, 225-pound sophomore has only hit 325 twice. He completed 63.7% of his attempts in eight games, with 10 touchdowns and four picks.

An injury to his throwing shoulder against Duke added to his woes. Reserves Jack Garcia and Jacurri Brown both played seven games apiece and were mediocre. If Van Dyke isn’t playing Pitt, look for Brown to start.

Turnover was also a big culprit. Miami has surrendered 2.1 times per game this season, and only eight programs have been more careless with the ball.

But here is the salt in the wound: at home, the Canes yield 3.6 times per game. Easily, it’s the worst in the country. Such neglect keeps the locals away from that stench inside Hard Rock.

The defense, too, has been brutal – a sieve in allowing thirds (bottom quarter in the country) and conversions in fourth (bottom 10 in the country). He gave the enemies 8.2 yards per pass, which is in the last 20 of the game.

Pittsburgh vs. Miami Sports Betting Recommendation and Picks

Hard Rock has been a house of horrors for Pitt, but overwhelming evidence points to the Panthers in this Saturday Night ACC case.

They are tight in defense and Abanikanda is a titanic ground force. Miami is weak against the run and when they have the ball, the Hurricanes have the most slippery hands in the country at home. Giving less than a touchdown is a gift.

Our choice : Panthers -6.5 (-110)

Read also: Discover the best sports betting app for you | How to bet on CFB

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