November 28, 2022

This is the weirdest week of NBA DFS I’ve ever seen. We had all teams in action on Monday and nobody played yesterday. The NBA took the day off so people could vote, but it leaves us with another full map here. This means that once again the player pool is huge and we have hundreds of players to choose from. However, there have been a lot of injuries in recent weeks and that will surely be a main topic in this article.

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Point Guard

Luke DoncicLuke Doncic FD – $11800 DK – $12500
Opponent – ORL
Project points FD – 63.9 DK – 66.84

I’m not sure if it’s possible to fade Doncic now. He is the top fantasy player, scoring at least 56 DraftKings points in every game this season. To put that in perspective, only one other player has an average higher than Lukas Boden! It’s no surprise when you see league-leading usage of Doncic falling just short of a 40 percent usage rate. That led to his absurd 66-point average, making Doncic the safest play on any board. We’re certainly not worried about a matchup with Magic, given that we owe a 24th OPRK against opposing point guards. They have no one to cover for Luka and we’re assuming he’ll be flirting with another 30-point triple-double.

Fred VanVleetFred VanVleet FD – $8500 DK – $8100
Opponent – HOW
Project points FD – 41.27 DK – 41.27

VanVleet is my favorite piece of the day. The reason we love him is because of this expanded role. Toronto just lost Pascal Siakam to a groin injury and that should force FVV into a monster role. He had a usage rate of just under 35 percent with Sia last season, averaging 1.4 DK points per minute under the circumstances. He proved that this year by averaging 52 points in the two games since Sia fell. Fact is simple, FVV will play 40 minutes, take 15-20 shots and handle the ball on every possession. This makes him particularly enticing against Houston as he gives up the second most fantasy points to opposing PGs this season.

Russell Westbrook (FD $7500 DK $7300) has at least 35 DK points in six straight games and could see more use as Anthony Davis and LeBron James both won.

Shooting Guard

Devin BookerDevin Booker FD – $8600 DK – $9000
Opponent – MINIMUM
Project points FD – 44.1 DK – 45.27

With Chris Paul and Cameron Johnson both injured in the past week, Booker should do whatever it takes to redeem that offense. When CP3 was out last year he was averaging nearly 50 fantasy points per game and is seeing his minutes, usage and ball handling duties skyrocket in his absence. We love it as we look at DB’s current form, who have at least 39 DraftKings points in all but one game this year. That puts his season average up to 42 DK points per game, and we truly believe that’s his floor in this matchup. In three encounters with Minnesota last season, Book scored at least 44 fantasy points in all of them.

Josh HartJosh Hart FD – $5800 DK – $6300
Opponent – CHA
Proj Pts FD – 29.1 DK – 29.5

Hart has fluctuated around $6,000 all year and I don’t understand why. This is one of the best stats in our sport, averaging 9.1 points, 8.6 rebounds, 5.0 assists and 1.2 steals per game. These might not jump off the page, but it’s an average of 30 points. It also set up an elite tier for Hart and scored at least 21 DK points in every game that year. That’s a fantastic floor from a $6,000 player and we love that he lost 37 fantasy points in 37 minutes on his last game. The encounter with Charlotte is also sensational, because the Hornets finished 26th in the defensive standings last year.

Darius garland (8,000 FD$ 6,900 DK$) should not be less than $7,000 on either side. He’s averaging 47 DK points in every game he’s finished this season and faces an underperforming Sacramento defense here.

Little Striker

PaulGeorgePaulGeorge FD – $9400 DK – $10200
Opponent – LAL
Project points FD – 48.44 DK – 49.82

It’s hard not to be thrilled with what PG13 is doing. He’s carried the Clippers for the past week and has at least 41 DraftKings points in five straight games. He’s also hit a 75-point cap in that span, and it’s clear this All-Star is ready to headline the show in Kawhi Leonard’s absence. That leaves George with 20-25 shots and a 35 percent utilization rate, which is huge given that the rest of this roster is struggling mightily. As long as it has that kind of usage, PG13 is one of the best bets on any board. You know he’ll be motivated against his crosstown rivals as the Lakers are allowing at least 114 points in four straight games.

Troy Brown Jr.Troy Brown Jr. FD – $4200 DK – $4000
Opponent – LAK
Proj Pts FD – 21.01 DK – 21.82

This is an all-out punt game, but most Lakers players fall into that boat. This dysfunctional franchise needs someone to play James Small Forward in LeBron’s absence, and it looks like Brown will be that guy. The former wizard has started averaging 20 DK points per game over 26 minutes a night for the last six games. That might not sound like a lot, but it’s a good sum from a $4,000 player. Anyone playing 25-30 minutes and making double-digit shot attempts should never come cheap, especially if they’re expected to see a boost when a utility hog like LeBron is on the bench.

Royce O’Neale (FD $4800 DK $5300) averages over 27 fantasy points per game, which is incredible for a $5K player.

power forward

Michael Porter Jr.Michael Porter Jr. FD – $6700 DK – $6500
Opponent – IND
Proj Pts FD – 31.21 DK – 33.02

We can’t let these nuggets fade away on this board. That offense clicked as Jamal Murray and MPJ are slowly coming back to full strength and we know they’re going to go crazy against Indiana. The Pacers rank 28th in defensive efficiency and points allowed, with Denver expecting 120 points at this point. That’s huge for a sniper like Porter, who has at least 23 DK points in every game this season. He also has his season average of up to 31 DraftKings points per game and we think he’ll get better as the season progresses. In his two most recent matchups with Indiana, MPJ is averaging 40 fantasy points per game!

Evan MobleyEvan Mobley FD – $6400 DK – $5900
Opponent – BAG
Project points FD – 37.21 DK – 35.93

It’s been a bad year for this former top pick, but Monday bodes well for the future. Mobley went off for 26 points and eight rebounds against an elite Clippers defense and now has at least 31 DK points in five of his last seven games. That’s where his season average lies, and it’s bizarre to see such a talented youngster with such an affordable price tag. That recent rebound should continue against Sacramento, with the Kings sitting in the bottom five last year in points allowed and defensive efficiency. They’re also giving away the 6th highest fantasy points to enemy PFs this year, and we think this is the start of a massive price spike in the coming weeks.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD $11,600, DK $12,400) is one of the safest plays on the board after his 60-point average. Watch for his role to grow even bigger with Holiday and Middleton both out.

center

Alperen SengunAlperen Sengun FD – $6600 DK – $6500
Opponent – GATE
Project points FD – 35.43 DK – 35.66

Sengun has become one of my favorite players. This Turkish center went mad in a limited role last year and the Rockets are finally realizing this is one of their best players. He has been included in the starting line-up for the last two weeks and has been averaging 37 DK points per game over 27 minutes a night since the opener. That’s one of the best per-minute rates you’ll see, and it’s only a matter of time before that playtime gets closer to 30-35 minutes. You’ll need him to swallow those minutes against this big Toronto course, making it hard to see why he’s well under $7,000.

Myles TurnerMyles Turner FD – $6600 DK – $5700
Opponent – THE
Proj Pts FD – 31.47 DK – 29.65

Of all the bizarre prices on this board, this Turner pricing is the most outrageous. We think this kid is starting a breakout season as his usage skyrockets in the absence of Domantas Sabonis. That has led to Turner posting a 38-point average and dropping 62 fantasy points on his most recent outing. That average and cap is more indicative of an $8,000 player, and we genuinely believe he’ll be around that salary for the months to come. Turner has also been wrecking Denver in recent years, averaging 37 fantasy points per game in the last three matchups. It’s no surprise with Nikola Jokic’s ineptness at this end of the floor, making Myles one of the best values ​​of the day!

Al Horford (FD $5,100, DK $5,500) has 34 DK points in two of his last three games and was $1,500 more on both sides this time last year. We love this as he’s up against a Detroit team that has the worst defensive rating in the NBA.

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