November 28, 2022

By Moira Warburton

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Control of the U.S. House of Representatives is up for grabs in Tuesday’s midterms, with Republicans favored by nonpartisan forecasters to win control, which would allow them to block President Joe Biden’s agenda and investigate its administration.

Here are twelve races that could determine which party wins control of the chamber:

3RD DISTRICT OF KANSAS

Democrat Sharice Davids has held onto her district against Amanda Adkins, the former chairwoman of the state Republican party.

Davids faced a tough race after Republicans redrawn the suburban Kansas City district to include more rural and conservative-leaning areas. However, the national debate on abortion appeared to have worked in its favor: voters in this conservative state in August rejected a constitutional amendment that would have banned the procedure.

FLORIDA 13TH DISTRICT

Republican Anna Paulina Luna, a US Air Force veteran, has flipped Florida’s 13th District, beating Democrat Eric Lynn, a former Obama administration official.

This suburban Tampa district was one of several Democratic seats in Florida that Republicans were likely to pick up, thanks to a new district map backed by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis.

THE GREAT DISTRICT OF ALASKA

Democrat Mary Peltola won a surprise victory in an August special election, beating two Republicans: former GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin and businessman Nick Begich. Republicans opposed Alaska’s new “ranked-choice” voting system, in which voters list candidates in order of preference, although Peltola would have won even under the old system, as he get the most votes. The three will meet again in November.

2ND DISTRICT OF ARIZONA

Democratic Rep. Tom O’Halleran faces a tough race after his district that covers much of the eastern half of the state was redrawn to include more Republican voters.

His Republican opponent, Eli Crane, is a former Navy SEAL who in September 2021 asked the Arizona legislature to decertify Biden’s 2020 victory.

DISTRICT 22 OF CALIFORNIA

Republican Representative David Valadao was one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump in his second impeachment. He now faces a tough challenge from Democratic state Rep. Rudy Salas in a Central Valley district that has been substantially redrawn since the last election.

3RD DISTRICT OF IOWA

Democrat Cindy Axne led the 2018 “blue wave” of Democrats to victory, but redistricting has made her district slightly more Republican this year. Zach Nunn, a state senator and former Air Force pilot, hopes to capitalize on that. Abortion and inflation issues are expected to dominate the race.

2ND DISTRICT OF MAINE

Democratic Rep. Jared Golden narrowly won this largely rural district in 2018. He will now face Republican Bruce Poliquin, who previously held the seat. Golden is a moderate Democrat who often strays from the party’s leadership, while Poliquin emphasizes hot-button issues like immigration and gun rights, rather than the tax issues he previously covered. Two independent candidates have not garnered significant support, but could be a factor because Maine, like Alaska, uses ranked-choice voting.

NEW YORK 17TH DISTRICT

Incumbent Democratic Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney is facing a surprisingly close race for his Hudson Valley seat against Republican state lawmaker Michael Lawler. Maloney is the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the party’s campaign arm in the US House, and ousting him would be a major victory for Republicans.

OHIO 9TH DISTRICT

Democrat Marcy Kaptur faces perhaps her toughest re-election bid since 1983 after Republicans redrawn her district in Toledo. An Associated Press report that Republican candidate JR Majewski misrepresented his military career may have helped his chances. Republicans have pulled their ad for Majewski, a vocal Trump supporter who was in the U.S. Capitol during the riots on January 6, 2021. Analysts have shifted predictions for the seat to Kaptur.

5th DISTRICT OF OREGON

Democratic voters ousted moderate incumbent Kurt Schrader in a primary election in favor of progressive challenger Jamie McLeod-Skinner. But some analysts have said the district, which includes the suburbs of Portland and Salem, leans Republican. McLeod-Skinner faces Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer, the former mayor of Happy Valley, a Portland suburb.

2ND DISTRICT OF RHODE ISLAND

Democrats were expected to easily pick up his seat in this northeastern district, which has voted Democratic since 1991. But Republicans this year nominated Allan Fung, the local mayor, who has run as a moderate against the Democratic state treasurer Seth Magaziner. Fung has focused his campaign heavily on inflation, while Magaziner argues that Fung would enable the agenda of far-right House Republicans.

2ND DISTRICT OF VIRGINIA

Democratic Representative Elaine Luria, a retired naval commander, has gained national attention for her work on the committee investigating the January 6, 2021, attack on Congress. He faces a tough re-election fight in a heavily military district centered on Virginia Beach and has focused on the issue of abortion. Republican challenger Jen Kiggans, a state senator, says voters are more concerned about inflation.

(Reporting by Moira Warburton in Washington; Editing by Andy Sullivan, Josie Kao and Aurora Ellis)

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