The principle behind this article is simple. Identify fantasy football plays – guys you usually start or are on the FLEX fringe that have huge potential to boom/up above expectations – for the week ahead.
Embrace these guys and don’t be afraid to raise them to another “safer” option – preferably a higher ranked option – from my Week 12 Fantasy Football Rankings.
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Fantasy Football Smash City: Week 12
Jeff Wilson Jr. (RB-SF)
- The Texans allow the second-highest rate of rushing TDs in the league and the most fantasy points per game to RBs.
- Miami has the second-highest implied team total on the slate (29.75)
- Jeff Wilson Jr. rushed 17 times for 119 yards and 1 TD in Week 10, completely cementing himself as the team’s locked and loaded RB1.
- He was targeted 5 times (59% opportunity share, 19 touches) and played 61% of snaps.
- Rahim Mostert only carried the ball 8 times for 65 yards and also scored a TD on the ground (28% instant share). Mostert also caught all four of his targets for 22 yards.
- However, Wilson has covered more routes (53%), making him the favorite for greater use of reception in the future.
- Since joining the team in Week 9, Wilson has 26 carries for 170 yards with a 13% target share (5 catches for 45 yards) and two total touchdowns.
- Mostert has 17 carries for 91 yards with a 9.5 percent target share (4 catches for 22 yards) and two total touchdowns.
Kenneth Walker (RB-SEA)
- Las Vegas has the second worst red zone defense.
- The perfect remedy for Seattle’s 26th-ranked red zone offense to thrive.
- It’s also the perfect remedy for rookie running back Kenneth Walker to get back firmly on track after a lackluster outing in Germany against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
- He only had 10 carries for just 17 yards.
- However, he compensated for a lack of haste with receiver work: 6 for 55 on 8 targets (24% target share, 73% road participation). He also grabbed 100% opportunity share while playing 87% of snaps.
- KW3 is set to go NUCLEAR against a reeling Raiders defense that has allowed RBs the most fantasy points per game since their bye week (33 per game).
Michael Carter (RB–NYJ)
- The Bears allow the league’s highest rushing touchdown rate and 7th most rushing yards per game.
- And all signs point to Michael Carter operating as RB1 in the Jets’ backfield.
- The sophomore running back was leading with a 45% opportunity share, 50% snap share and 38% road stake.
- It’s also impossible to ignore Carter’s new advantage with quarterback Mike White under center.
- In White’s three starts last season, Carter averaged 9.6 targets, 7 receptions and 119 yards from scrimmage.
James Conner (RB – ARI)
- James Conner maintained Bellcow’s status in Team MNF’s loss to the 49ers.
- He won 95% of backfield opportunities before garbage time, totaling 16 touches. 14 for 42 on the ground (1 TD) and 2 for 12 in the air on 5 targets.
- 4 of Keaontay IngramAll 5 runs came when both teams withdrew their starters.
- With a heavy workload stalled and the return of Kyler Murray expected, Conner should be ultra-productive against a poor Chargers defense.
- They rank dead last in yards allowed before contact per attempt (1.93) and yards allowed per attempt (5.8) this season.
Miles Sanders (RB – PHI)
- This match has the slowest predicted pace of play among all Week 12 matches.
- The Eagles should be able to run the ball at will with the most favorable OL/DL game No. 2 according to PFF’s OL/DL game table.
- Green Bay faces the third-most rushing attempts per game from inside the 5-yard line (20.0) this season.
- They’ve been shredded on the ground all season, facing the league’s second-fastest attempts and fourth-fastest yards in the league.
- Set the stage for Miles Sanders to post a rebound effort after going 13-47-0 in Week 11.
- He’s struggled the past two weeks in two tougher matchups (Washington, Indianapolis), but Green Bay’s run defense poses little threat.
- Over the past four games, Sanders has averaged 13 carries for 68 yards (5.2 yards per carry). Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell have combined just over 5 runs per game.
Aaron Jones (RB–GB)
- The Eagles have been a bottom-10 defense for the past four weeks. Over the year, they rank 3rd in running defense EPAs.
- Over the past two weeks, the expected hit rate for the Packers offense is -14%. For perspective, the Bears’ season-long expectation hit rate is -16%. The Falcons are at -12%.
- Aaron Jones….Jones led the Packers backfield with 12 carries for 40 rushing yards Thursday night, adding 6 receptions for 20 yards. His carry volume was half of what it was the previous week, but that’s often the case with a team that reduces a player’s workload over a short week.
- He has consistently operated as the No. 1 clear running back with a 73% opportunity share and 66% break share. AJ Dillon was a non-factor as he has been all season, totaling 6 carries for 13 yards.
Keenan Allen (WR–LAC)
- This game has the fastest projected pace of play of any game in Week 12.
- Expect the Chargers to spread the ball with Justin Herbert at quarterback, who ranks second in the NFL in completions and attempts this season.
- Arizona’s defense ranks third in pass attempts met, second in completions and first in yards after catch allowed.
- As a result, some serious volume is coming for wide receiver Keenan Allen.
- Allen posted his best outing of the year in Week 11, catching 5 balls for 94 yards on 8 targets (28% target share) following his hamstring injury (68% snap share)
- Its target rate of 29% per route flown led the team.
- Cardinals Antonio Hamilton took over starting duties for the CB slot in Week 10. Since that time, the team has allowed 25 points per game to place WRs.
- He can be fully trusted in the starting lineups, especially if Mike Williams is out
Chris Olave (WR – NO)
- The 49ers can’t stop slot machine receivers.
- In the past four weeks, new slot safety defenseman Jimmie Ward has been targeted 23 times, allowing 23 catches for 197 yards and two touchdowns.
- Chris Olave leads the team in slotting targets over the past two weeks (6), followed by tight end Juwan Johnson (5). Olave played a season high, 45% of his slot snaps in Week 11.
- Jarvis Landry has traveled the most routes from the slot machine since returning 2 weeks ago. He saw three red zone targets in Week 11.
- All three have scored from the slot in the past 3 weeks.
- Johnson and Olave are tied with a 20% target share at the top of the team since Landry’s return in Week 10.
Parris Campbell (WR–IND)
- This game has the fourth-fastest projected pace of play among all games in Week 12.
- The Steelers’ run defense has improved significantly from a season ago: 2nd lowest TD rate allowed (18%) and 11th in EPA run defense.
- This suggests that the Colts offense will most likely move the ball through the air.
- Pittsburgh ranks last in fantasy points per game allowed to place WRs.
- Parris Campbell szn. In his last four games with Matt Ryan, Campbell has a target share of 24.5%.
- He also averaged over 7 receptions, 9.5 targets and 67.5 receiving yards.
Foster Moreau (TE – LV)
- Moreau finished with just one catch for 33 yards on 3 targets in Week 11. Woof.
- But what’s worse is that he’s only got a run on 61% of Derek Carr’s dropbacks despite playing on 100% of the snaps.
- He was asked to pass block more than in the past, which explains the drop in reception.
- However, with a positive on-deck matchup against Seattle, I’d still take a flyer on him as a Week 12 streaming option.
- The Seahawks have allowed the second-most fantasy points and receiving yards this season.