November 30, 2022

SAN CARLOS, Calif. and CHICAGO, Nov. 08, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Farmers Business Network (FBN®), the global farmer-to-farmer AgTech platform and network, today launched its US corn released for November and the soybean yield report, fourth in the monthly series of FBN yield reports for 2022 to be released through December. FBN’s commodity forecasts are based on unique crop yield survey data from FBN members.

“Our dataset is unique because we combine the modeling with input from our farmer members during harvest,” said FBN Chief Economist Kevin McNew. “This forecast indicates that corn at 173 bushels per acre, although higher than our previous forecast, is still below last year’s total and would represent the tightest stock situation in several years. And our US soybean yield estimate of 49.7 bushels is the lowest US estimate so far this season.”

Key Findings of the FBN Yield Report

FBN is forecasting a slightly higher US corn yield of 173 bushels per acre versus the USDA’s October estimate of 171.9 bushels. This would not change fundamentals significantly, but would provide some relief to the worsening equity situation. Now, shares are seen closer to the 1.1 billion bushel mark and below the USDA’s most recent forecast. The FBN forecast of 173 is still below last year’s total and would be the tightest stock in several years.

For soybeans, a yield of 49.7 bushels would be just 0.1 bushels below the USDA’s October report. Closing inventories are seen near the 175 million bushel mark, which is slightly smaller than the USDA.

For both crops, an important finding is that yield projections are not considered to be drastically different and have not changed significantly over time.

With the harvest well past halfway at this point, demand is being closely monitored. The weather in South America is also being closely monitored. Brazil’s planting season got off to a smoother start than neighboring Argentina, where rain is needed.

The high price environment is expected to remain a feature this crop year for now. Downside risks are associated with South America and the weather, but it is still early to see a significant impact on returns. The weather through late 2022 and early 2023 will be key for summer crops there.

Another downside risk is related to demand, or at least the ability to use the US water system, which suffers from low water levels that require barges not to be fully loaded. This has implications for the price competitiveness of US wheat and corn in world markets. Supporting elements alongside the de-stocking of US inventories are related to the decline in global feed grain supply, input prices, traffic from the Black Sea and the short corn harvest in Europe.

For more details on the current Black Sea situation, see the FBNsEffects of the Russia-Ukraine War: Six Months LaterReport published October 2022.

Important results for corn

  • FBN The US corn yield estimate is 173 bushels.
  • Compared to our previous data analysis, yields in South Dakota, Ohio, Missouri, and Iowa increased by one bushel, while yields in Nebraska and Illinois increased by two bushels.
  • In general, recent harvest progress has pulled yields higher.
  • Overall, most state yields are still below year-earlier levels, with only Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, and North Dakota yields currently outperforming their 2021 aggregates.

A photo accompanying this announcement is available at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/4667185a-26b2-40a3-b0db-6da083994fbf

A photo accompanying this announcement is available at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/604ae013-9f5f-4ec5-a33b-7e062ca2e76b

Corn growers affected by drop in Mississippi shipping due to drought

FBN’s November Corn and Soybean Yield Report also mentions the impact on demand for corn, which is currently being influenced by inland navigation rates on the Mississippi River (lower chart) over the past 8 weeks, and how the base (measure of farmer price) changed in the region.

  • Corn prices are being hit hard in export-sensitive areas of the US as a result of unprecedented low water levels in the Mississippi Rivers.
  • FBN has found that farmers in AR/MS as well as IL, IN, OH, KY segments are most affected by the price impact with losses of 50 cents a bushel or more. Although water levels have improved somewhat over the past week, export flows are still severely restricted and are still affecting farmer prices today.
  • In deep red areas, the base has been reduced by 50 cents or more. Even if inland shipping rates are softening, they are still well above normal for this time of year.
  • Areas west of the Mississippi River experienced limited impact, likely thanks to the multiple sources of demand in those regions. However, the AR/MS region and the Ohio River area see greater impact due to limited alternative sources of demand to accommodate the excess supply.

A photo accompanying this announcement is available at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/4ca780f3-80b2-4fc5-bc86-c2bbf1106e8e

Important results for soybeans

  • FBN The US soybean yield estimate is 49.7 bushels.
  • This is the lowest US estimate so far this season, based on data provided by members.
  • Compared to the previous data analysis, state yields increased in Ohio, Nebraska and Indiana but fell in Minnesota and Illinois.

A photo accompanying this announcement is available at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/e2be628b-d28f-49e3-8793-b5e5899e1305

A photo accompanying this announcement is available at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/631249e1-b912-4ce7-8507-fc246960484b

FBN Research will publish the final earnings report for the year in December. FBN’s model-based yield estimates are now coming to an end for the 2022 crop season. The FBN research team will move away from model-based estimations and instead move to actual field observation analysis as FBN members contribute more data.

About FBN

Farmers Business Network® (FBN®) is an independent AgTech platform and farmer-to-farmer network with a mission to advance prosperity on family farms around the world while working towards a sustainable future. Its Farmers First® promise has attracted over 48,000 members to the network with a shared goal of helping farmers maximize their farm’s profit potential with data and technology-enabled direct selling, community and farmer sustainability offerings. FBN aims to redefine value and convenience for farmers by helping reduce production costs and maximize the value of their crops. The FBN® network has grown to more than 105 million acres of member farms in the US, Canada and Australia. Combining the best of Midwestern agricultural roots and Silicon Valley technology, the company has more than 900 employees and principal offices in San Carlos, CA, Chicago, IL, Sioux Falls, SD, a Canadian headquarters in High River, Alberta , and an Australian headquarters in Perth with significant warehousing and logistics, remote and field service employees in the US, Canada and Australia.

To learn more, visit: www.fbn.com

Copyright © 2014 – 2022 Farmer’s Business Network, Inc. All rights reserved. The Sprout logo, “Farmers Business Network” and “FBN” are trademarks, registered trademarks, or service marks of Farmer’s Business Network, Inc.

The material provided is for educational purposes only and may contain forward-looking statements based on the beliefs of the authors, assumptions, expectations and projections and information currently available to them. The actual results may differ. Neither Farmer’s Business Network, Inc. nor its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of any statements or information contained in the material, and all liability is therefore expressly disclaimed.

media contact

Amy Wolfcale

Global Head of Corporate Communications and Media Relations

[email protected]

(917) 576 8767

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