November 28, 2022

Welcome to the Daily NBA Betting Market Report. This report is your source of analysis for the day’s betting line in professional basketball. Follow me on Twitter and subscribe to the Hardwood Handicappers podcast for all-day updates!

All game lines through the VSiN NBA odds page.

Wednesday, November 9 Market Report

* Indicates that the team is in the second leg of back-to-back.

**Lines are starting numbers.

best choice

Records: 14-16 | Units: -2.72 | ROI: -9.53%

Brooklyn Nets’ New York Knicks (-1.5, 225)

New York have been extremely inconsistent up to this point in the season, but one thing that stands out is the Knicks’ consistently poor defense against elite strikers. They allowed 1.371 points per possession to Boston last Saturday and had no defensive options for the wing duo of Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, who combined for 56 points while four other scorers had more than 12 points. The Knicks look set to struggle to defend Kevin Durant, who is averaging 31.0 points, 6.0 rebounds and 49.6% floor shots. However, after launching an offensive attack against Washington in the first game without Kyrie Irving, the Nets only finished 1.055 points per possession in the next two games. Nonetheless, the numbers moved with the Nets tonight and I agree to the move. New York doesn’t have a good option for Durant and the Nets quietly dealt with some inconsistent attacking opponents, limiting their last five enemies to 102.7 points per 100 possession.

Play: Net (-2.5)

Best betting summary

net (-2.5)

Remainder

Dallas Mavericks (-7, 216.5) Orlando Magic

Dallas have not dealt with numbers since their win over Brooklyn on October 27, making them 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games. During these five games, the Mavericks have a net rating of +1.4 and a SU record of 4-1. Both are perfect for winning games, but they don’t cover them. Dallas became the favorite of all contests, averaging seven points, not conducive to a cover if they could barely hold out like the Mavericks. That said, Dallas’ struggles didn’t stop the line from moving to their advantage here, but that could be due to Paolo Banchero’s questionable status as opposed to support for the Mavericks. Dallas is also dealing with injuries. Christian Wood is not on the team and is out. That means he’s likely going out on Thursday as well.

Charlotte Hornets’ Portland Trail Blazers (-6, 221.5)

Charlotte have lost their last 5 games and are 1-7 SU/2-6 ATS in their last 8 games. Poor health is the driving force behind this poor play, and it won’t get any better tonight against Portland as both Gordon Hayward and LaMelo Ball are listed out once more. Hornets’ attack was the worst with these injuries. During this five-game losing streak, he averaged 97.2 points per 100 possessions in non-waste time. Portland were a much more effective team than originally thought, but the opening number of -6 was too high and the market appears to have corrected itself with a consensus number of -4.5 as of this morning. Total also reduced to 220.5 at open in most stores.

Denver Nuggets of Indiana Pacers (-5.5, 234.5)

Indiana’s offense continues to be successful against weakly defended opponents. As demonstrated when he scored 1.28 points against New Orleans on Monday. Tonight, the Pacers get their Nuggets, which rank 22nd (114.2) in non-garbage time defensive effectiveness and 25th (132.8) in conversion defense. Indiana is averaging 115.8 points per 100 possessions on offense and 1.376 points per play on conversion, both of which are currently in the top 10 in the league, so we’ll be tracking them down again tonight. The mayor has adjusted the ratings for the Pacers, and with good reason as this team is in a 5-0 ATS run.

Boston Celtics’ Detroit Pistons (-12, 224.5)

Detroit had a 1-3 record against Boston last season, but averaged 12.25 points per game and 4-0. This is when the game started, but I’ve seen it drop to -11.5 in most stores since then. The Pistons had their best defense of the season, winning the Thunder by 1.01 points per possession on Monday, but the team still bottoms out in Garbage Time Defensive Efficiency (118.3) and second – the league’s best striker tonight in Boston (117.6). It’s hard to swallow a number like this given how inconsistent this Celtics’ defense has been (114.0 points per 100 possessions) and it’s hard to feel confident when a cheaper in-game opportunity opens up tonight.

Atlanta Hawks’ Utah Jazz (-3.5, 226)

This appears to be a relatively large discrepancy on paper. Utah was fourth in offensive rebounds percentage (31.3%) in this game, second in putback plays generated per 100 missed shot attempts (22.9), and ninth in putback points per 100 missed shot attempts (22.4). Meanwhile, Atlanta is ranked 27th in defensive rebounding percentage (68.0%) and 23rd in putback points per 100 error attempts allowed (22.9). Given Trae Young’s questionable status, Jazz looks set to have the upper hand in tonight’s matchup. It’s not surprising to see these numbers shift towards the underdog at some point.

Toronto Raptors’ Houston Rockets (-7.5, 224)

Houston flew a 0-6 SU/1-4-1 ATS slide in a victory over Orlando, their best offense of the season in that competition. Tonight, they should find another great offensive against a defense that is only allowing 109.1 points per 100 possessions in non-waste time. The biggest statistic here is turnover. Houston ranked third in the league with 17.2% possession, while Toronto recorded the second highest turnover with an opponent share of 17.6%. That’s why the Raptors lead the NBA in extra runs per 100 possessions with their conversion offense off-steals. Not surprisingly, this number is now -9 consensus, bringing the total to 225.

Minnesota Timberwolves’ Phoenix Suns (-4.5, 225.5)

In yesterday’s podcast episode I discussed playing the Phoenix Suns game in full, given the losses of Cam Johnson and Chris Paul. Well, the betting market has the same idea as this number has come down to the 222.5 consensus. Not a play I can play in the column given the move in total and the loss of three points, but if Paul misses time – he’s questionable tonight – it will be an angle worth following. As far as flanks go, it’s not shocking to see this with the injuries Sun -1 suffered. Minnesota are still the 7th best defensive team in the league, and they deserve some respect when playing against short-handed opponents.

New Orleans Pelicans of Chicago Bulls (-1, 230)

It looks like we’ve reached the top market in New Orleans as the team has posted 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games and a 0-4 ATS slide. Still, the betting market doesn’t seem to be giving up faith in this team as we’re still seeing the line in favor of the Pelicans at -2 at several stores. Chicago have been a good rebounding team so far this season, catching 52.1% of available rebounds and 73.3% of their opponents’ missed shots, which should help cover those numbers against New Orleans. The Bulls also finished an astonishing 6th place in defensive effectiveness (109.7), leading to an 8-4 ATS record up to this point.

San Antonio Spurs’ Memphis Grizzlies (-6.5, 233)

One of the early seasons, Cinderella, has finally turned into a pumpkin. San Antonio covered their loss to Denver, but the team is 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS in their last 4 games with a net rating of -19.1. Their offense, which had been carrying the burden during the start of the season, averaged only 1.012 points during this skid. It’s likely they’ll find a better footing against Memphis, but it’s hard to expect the defender to include Za Morant this season, who have allowed 117.9 points per 100 possessions in non-waste time this season. I doubt Steven Adams can explain the line heading for the Grizzlies from here, but Spurs are getting early market support.

Milwaukee Bucks from Oklahoma City Thunder (-7.5, 220.5)

Oklahoma City have problems on offense when Shai-Gilgeous Alexander is off the floor. He was averaging 111.5 points per 100 possession when he played, and during that time he outdone his opponent with 1.8 points per 100 possession. However, their attack rating tank is 98.1 and they have a net rating of -14.6 in their possession. It leads to a rough comeback but also blows the lead. Also, if Gilgeous-Alexander leaves the pitch, it leads to a great in-game strategy against Oklahoma City. Jrue Holiday is doubtful if he will be able to play tonight. This explains the line shift towards the Thunder, but no one on this roster physically matches Giannis Antetokounmpo on defense.

Los Angeles Lakers (-6, 222) from Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers have won 4 of 5 headers this game against the Lakers, and Paul George is averaging 31.0 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 5.2 assists this game. However, the Clippers are still barely managing 108.7 points per 100 possessions despite troublesome George production. A better-defending opponent could ruin the Clippers’ game this time, but the Lakers quietly slid off defense and are currently ranked 16th in terms of non-garbage time defensive effectiveness. Clippers to set 6 are a bit too many. It was one store. And the current line of -3.5 is much more consistent with what we saw in the season opener.

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