November 27, 2022

WagerBop serves up a Turkey Day menu with 2 NFL game predictions and 3 Sunday kickoff predictions in week 12. But don’t expect dessert with 4 betting tips on Monday Night Football – with a boring endgame between Pittsburgh and Indianapolis, anyone who wants to speculate a total of 4 times during this This Round of MNF play should be prescribed an extra dose of Xanax and a glass of mulled wine.

Don’t worry, next week we’ll be covering a big MNF crowd when Tom Brady takes the field again in prime time. For now, this weekend’s NFL role begins with the Buffalo Bills playing on their strange new “home” turf.

Buffalo Bills at the Detroit Lions (Thursday, November 24)

The NFL is tinkering with its Thanksgiving schedule a bit, leading to unique handicap circumstances in week 12. Turkey Day’s point distribution can shift towards tight and fast, but even the New York Giants’ impressive win-loss record didn’t make it. It didn’t stop the bookies taking 10 points away from Dallas at home against Big Blue. Minnesota and New England both have closer points spreads for Thursday Night Football, but the Vikings’ lazy week 11 form compared to the rest of the Twin Cities’ season could result in a scenario where both teams are players looking for “action points.” ‘ hoping that their selection will ‘devour, devour’ a one-sided win.

The fascinating NFL stories of Thanksgiving don’t end there. National Football League planning officials likely thought they would offer a brand new list of new teams and venues for Turkey Day after deviating from the usual “rust belt” theme this Thursday. Instead, the Buffalo Bills are an “AFC North” club that should get used to playing at Ford Field. Buffalo played in a rather random game in Detroit on Sunday, but not against the home team Motor City. Rather, the Bills performed in a substitute contest due to the snow in upstate New York. Buffalo is a solid (-9.5) favorite over the steadily improving Lions in the earliest Week 12 NFL kickoff.

Detroit is such a pesky underdog that it’s difficult to put up a fight against the Lions at home, and yet the Buffalo Bills are beginning to feel comfortable in their satellite environment in a way much like the San Francisco 49ers made Phoenix a home away from home in the COVID-19 era.

Our recommended pick is Detroit’s Jared Goff, who will end the Lions-Bills game with more passing yards than star counterpart Josh Allen thanks to the Bills’ “backdoor” angle, potentially taking a big lead, passing the rock and Forcing Detroit to throw down the field to try to come back. If the bookies are wrong and it’s the Lions to take a nice lead at halftime, then Goff will likely have a head start on Allen for overall yards passing on the day.

WagerBop’s Pick: Jared Goff Highest Total Pass Yards (Prop Bet Pick) (+158)

New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys (Thursday, Nov. 24)

It’s time to put the brakes on the Dallas Cowboys (-10) hype once again, at least until the Silver Star accumulates double-digit point spreads on rivalry games against victorious opponents. The Cowboys conceded nearly 2 100-yard rushers in a 23-16 win over New York earlier this fall, a game that was very even over 3 frames.

Crowd noise at Jerry World isn’t going to bolster a run defense as much as a fierce pass rush, and quarterback Daniel Jones’ team — much like the Buffalo Bills in Week 11 — is probably just as happy at the MetroPlex with wet, cold weather in the east.

WagerBop’s Pick: Giants ATS

Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday, November 27)

Baltimore’s paltry (-4) point spread line at Jacksonville is based on a number of observations Las Vegas cappers make, including Lamar Jackson’s consistent and turnover issues in 2022, Baltimore’s relatively low score for a 1st-ranked team, and 3- 7 Jacksonville’s top-flight defense that didn’t allow for MVP performances from Kansas City’s wide receivers in the Jags’ previous game on Nov. 13, though pioneering Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce chewed up Jacksonville in KC’s 27-17 win.

NFL odds makers could try to “watch” Baltimore’s gameplay. It’s true that the Ravens didn’t set the world on fire in last weekend’s narrow win over Carolina, but we’ve reported quite often that Carolina remains a surprisingly dangerous spoiler with the departure of longtime congestion Christian McCaffery. John Harbaugh focused on getting his team out of the way in poor northeast conditions without catastrophic corners (or turnovers). It was a 13-3 win straight out of the 1970s, but it wasn’t as thrilling as this week’s odds would suggest and certainly doesn’t mean the 2022-23 Baltimore Ravens won’t be able to boast a 3-7 team Can defeat 5 + points on the street and cover the spread.

WagerBop’s pick: Raven’s ATS (-4)

LA Rams vs. Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday, November 27)

And this is where we thought match ups like England vs Iran would cause the biggest mismatched betting lines. You wouldn’t have credited the defending Super Bowl champion LA Rams as a 15-point underdog this season, but FanDuel’s Thanksgiving Weekend odds are unmistakable — there’s the Super Bowl 56 winners with (+15.5) on the spread point, and Kansas City’s moneyline odds (-1200) are equally stunning.

KC’s front office did a good job replacing superstars like Tyreek Hill with a new selection of skill players who, overall, added as much to KC’s offense as Hill often did alone on Sundays. KC (+470) odds of winning the Lombardi Trophy are up significantly, the second-best mark behind Buffalos.

Recent victories over San Francisco and the LA Chargers sent a message to the rest of the league. Meanwhile, the Mountain Goats are at an unthinkable 3-7 and in danger of missing the playoffs.

However, it takes a lot more evidence to justify a point spread (+15.5) across an NFL opponent, let alone the defending champions. Sean McVay’s team will be preparing hard to perform on an unseasonably warm weekend in Missouri, and if cold rain becomes a factor, it could help Kansas City drop just a few of Pat Mahomes’ laser passes.

WagerBop’s Pick: Rams ATS (+15.5)

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday Night Football)

Given how poorly Green Bay’s offense has fared down the road in 2022, the Philadelphia sportsbook’s cautious (-6.5) scoring spread this week gives users a chance to pick young lion QB Jalen Hurts, to make a statement about the old lion at Aaron Rodgers. The expected rain Sunday in Philly, when it comes gametime, could just make the pack more accident-prone and encourage Hurts to take on the competition with dual-threat running and downfield throws.

WagerBop’s Pick: Eagles ATS (-6.5)

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