There is always a price where players can provide value. However, based on the average draft position, certain players are unlikely to provide enough value to draft them where they are currently drafted. Our analysts rate these players much lower than their ADPs. Check out Andrew Erickson’s 2022 all-around team.
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Andrew Erickson’s all-round team
Patrick Mahomes (KC)
Mahomes ranks fourth in fantasy points per game (22.0), but has a lower fantasy score per game than in 2020 (25.2). That’s where Tyreek Hill comes in.
Heading into 2022, Hill’s departure cannot be ignored. Since 2016, the pair are second in total passing touchdowns (41) — though Mahomes wasn’t a starter until the 2018 season. Without Hill, his top weekly cap is a real concern, and that doesn’t count against his QB2 ADP.
Of the QBs selected in the top 3 ADPs…Mahomes had the highest bankruptcy rate last season.
Of the seven races Tyreek Hill eliminated in 2021, Mahomes has finished in the top five in just one. When Hill finished WR20 or better, Mahomes had five top finishes.
After one season, he posted a career-low PFF passing score (77.5) and a career-high number of interceptions (16) — overrated as a QB2 for name recognition alone.
Ezekiel Eliot (DAL)
Antonio Gibson (WAS)
DK Metcalfe (SEA)
The difference between having Geno Smith/Drew Lock and Russell Wilson at quarterback cannot be overstated. It’s a dire situation that puts DK Metcalf in trouble.
Despite the small sample size last season, Alpha Wide did rise to the occasion, averaging 14.9 points per game in three games without Wilson’s quarterback (15th – the same ranking as his last season). ).
But I suspect that the quarterbacks who removed them before his finger hurt were in yardage per attempt (10.4), passer rating (133.6) and passer rating (130.9) Leading the NFL will have a bigger impact on the 17-yard-game sample size.
Metcalf has 32 touchdowns over the past 3 seasons…
But scoring could be a rare commodity for the Seahawks offense in 2022.
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) August 24, 2022
Deontay Johnson (PIT)
With a new quarterback, the Steelers’ passing rate could plummet. For the past two seasons, Pittsburgh has ranked second in passing percentage, tied with Ben Roethlisberger. In the 2019 season, when Big Ben missed just two games, the Steelers ranked 23rd in passing percentage. No one saw more than 100 goals on that offense.
Diontae Johnson competes for targets with Chase Claypool, Pat Freiermuth, George Pickens and others, the new QB may not hit the target as often as he does, and still has the potential to bottom out in a more run-centric offense;
I don’t like paying a premium in round 4 because there is so much uncertainty in the center.
Remember, the highest WR associated with a rookie QB last season was Brandin Cooks’ WR20.
Johnson already struggled last season with poor quarterback performance — yielding a negative EPA score on one offense and becoming the only top-10 WR. Another four were completed in the WR18-WR24 range.
Receivers like Johnson are fantastic WR2s, and their existing bad offense won’t be fantastic WR1s unless they see an absolutely ridiculous number of targets.
So why pay Johnson’s 26% target share in 2021 in the middle of round 4, when you can acquire Darnell Mooney or Blandin Cook’s high-end target share in a later round?
Adam Thielen (MIN)
The 32-year-old winger has been “capable” of finding the end zone 24 times since the start of 2020, which has allowed him to shine in fantasy but is not sustainable in the long run. Based on Thielen’s goals and total yards, his total TD should be closer to 16.
Justin Jefferson is a rising rocket, and his TD will only rise as he enters Year 3, likely to the detriment of Thielen. Not to mention, AT’s age may finally catch up to him since he first became a starter in 2016, as he posted his lowest PFF receiving rating and yards per route run.
Mark Andrews (BAL)
Last year, Mark Andrews was a front-round tight end who led his team to a fantastic championship. The Baltimore Ravens’ fourth-year TE leads the position with 25% target share, 28% air yards share and 17.5 fantasy points per game. He ran a line on 84 percent of his offensive dropbacks, which was also No. 1.
With Marquise Brown being traded to the Cardinals, Andrews has cemented himself as the clear TE1, his primary competitive target for the second year still unproven.
However, be aware that even if Andrews does repeat his efforts as TE1, it probably won’t be at the level of 2021. He has run 623 routes, an increase of 209 from 2020, and has fueled his career. Andrews’ increase on the route has been linked to the Ravens’ improved passing percentage (56 percent).
From 2019 to 2020, Baltimore passed less than 46 percent of the time. Because Baltimore’s passing increase is due to necessity in 2021, I expect it to return to levels closer to 2019-20 levels in the upcoming season.
Josh Jacobs (RB – LV) & Damien Harris (RB – NE)
The Raiders’ offense is poised to reach new heights in 2022, with No. 1 wide receiver Davante Adams in the mix. That’s in favor of the team’s projected lead, Josh Jacobs, who has missed the team’s last two preseason games. A more effective offense could potentially give itself more scoring opportunities — a must after the 29th-ranked OL in PFF — and Jacobs will get the most as the team’s primary red-zone guard. return.
Despite playing alongside Kenyans Drake and Jalen Richard, last year’s RB13 posted a career high in all receiving categories for 2021. Jacobs, intent on making him more of a receiver, has caught at least two passes in 12 of his 15 games. What’s more, Jacobs’ demonstrated receptive abilities quell his reliance on “game script” narratives. Whether the Raiders win or lose in the AFC West in 2022, JJ has proven that he can make a difference in every way.
From Week 1, Jacobs is second in RB goals (42, 5.3 per game).
Although it’s important to remember that Drake and Darren Waller have missed five of those eight games. Jaylen Richard missed three games. Considering Jacobs averaged just 3.3 goals per game before all injuries in Weeks 1-9, it’s hard for him to continue his passing game use from 2021 with more passers on the floor .
This makes him a fantasy RB2 that relies heavily on TD.
Especially considering the Raiders opted to sign Brandon Bolden and Amir Abdullah in the offseason to bolster their running back stability behind Jacobs. Bolden has been a special team player for almost his entire career, so I doubt he can play any legitimate role on offense.
Abdullah has been used as his third back for several teams at the NFL level, and the team that opted to release Kenya Drake showed he was a backcourt pass-catch RB lock.
The team also drafted Zamir White in the fourth round, but based on New England’s Josh McDaniels record of not being a Day 3 rookie RB, I wouldn’t expect too much from White in Year 1.
As a result, the new head coach is more likely to leave Jacobs in trouble with expiring contracts, as he did with Dion Lewis, Legaret Blunt and Sean Willing during his tenure with the Patriots That way.
Also, the red zone role is paramount for fantasy points, which seems to be in Jacobs’ grasp.
Two guard Damian Harris thrived in a red zone role with the Patriots last season. He ranks fourth in carries (46) and TDs (13) in rushing within the 20-yard line.
But the Patriots offense also lacks serious red zone threats like Waller, Adams and Hunter Renfro.
All in all, like many of the running backs on this bust list were drafted in the dreaded RB dead zone (mostly rounds 3-5), Jacobs’ 2022 predictions have too many “bad guys”. “, outpacing his potential advantage on TD Vegas as a first-five-round pick. His current ADP ranking is 45th overall, which is too rich for my blood because he has so many problems with his profile.
It would be much better to draft a WR within this range.
But if everyone in your draft decides to drop one of this dead zone to a point where it can be picked up late in the 6th round or even a 7th-round pick, be open to digging for value.
After all, while Jacobs’ weekly cap isn’t that high — zero top-six (booming play) — he’s one of only four RBs to make the top 16, with a bankrupt rate of is 0%.
All things considered, he’s just a cheap version of Ezekiel Elliott.
2022 Consensus Best Ball Rankings
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