BTC Fear & Greed Index Inches Higher Despite a Bearish BTC Session

Key insights:

  • Bitcoin (BTC) is bucking the trend of the top ten cryptocurrencies on Friday, falling 0.59% to close the session at $ 19,299.
  • Recession fears weighed on the NASDAQ 100, which put pressure on BTC throughout the second half of the day.
  • However, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed index rose from 20/100 to 24/100, with a likely factor of broader market decoupling from NASDAQ.

Bitcoin (BTC) slid 0.59% on Friday. Partially reversing a 5.09% rally on Thursday, BTC ended the day at $ 19,299. While closing at $ 19,000 for the second time in four sessions, BTC did not hit $ 20,000 for the fifth consecutive session.

A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an initial high of $ 19,512 before reversing. Coming below the first major resistance level (R1) at $ 19,832, BTC slipped to an early afternoon low of $ 18,551. BTC broke through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $ 18,685 before a late return to $ 19,000.

Investor sentiment towards the global economy and fears of a recession drove BTC to less than $ 19,000 before the partial recovery. Eurozone and UK PMI numbers were dire, with the US private sector also shrinking. The NASDAQ 100 mirrored the mood, down 1.80%.

NASDAQ 5 Minute Chart – BTCUSD 240922

The Bitcoin Fear & Greed index rises to 24 despite the loss of BTC

Today, the Fear & Greed index has risen from 20/100 to 24/100. The index rose despite fears of a global economic recession. A belated recovery in the cryptocurrency market suggested a greater focus of investors on monetary policy than the economic environment. Weak economic indicators could force central banks to take their foot off the gas.

Significantly, the index avoided the below-20, supported by a return of BTC to $ 19,000. The index should form an uptrend to give BTC a run to $ 25,000.

In recent weeks, avoiding below-20/100 has been the key. The bears will see a drop below 20/100 to signal a drop in BTC below $ 18,000. Conversely, the bulls will seek a return of the index to 40/100 to support a move towards $ 25,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) price action.

At the time of writing, BTC was down 0.72% to $ 19,161. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an initial high of $ 19,315 before falling to a low of $ 19,085.

BTCUSD 240922 daily chart

Technical indicators

BTC must avoid the $ 19,121 pivot to reach the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $ 19,690. A move by BTC through Friday’s high of $ 19,512 would support a bullish session. However, avoiding a return of less than $ 19,000 this morning would be the key.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC should test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $ 20,082. The third major resistance level (R3) is found at $ 21,043.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) into play at $ 18,729. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid less than $ 18,000. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $ 18,160 should limit the downside.

The third major support level (S3) is found at $ 17,199.

BTCUSD 240922 hourly chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hour candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish sign. Bitcoin was trading below the 50-day EMA this morning, currently at $ 19,407. The 50-day EMA has slipped back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling from the 200-day EMA, providing bearish price signals.

A move through the 50-day EMA ($ 19,407) and R1 ($ 19,690) would give the bulls a run to the 100-day EMA ($ 19,790) and R2 ($ 20,082). The 200-day EMA is trading at $ 20,366. However, failing to break out of the 50-day EMA would leave BTC under pressure.

BTCUSD 240922 4-hour chart

Trend analysis

Looking at the trends, BTC would need a move through the August high of $ 25,203 and $ 25,500 to reach the June high of $ 31,956. Avoiding a fall through the September low of $ 18,210 would support a return towards $ 25,000.

However, the trend turned bearish after the new September low on Wednesday. A fall through the September low of $ 18,210 would bring less than $ 18,000 into play and the June low of $ 17,601. A return of the Fear & Greed Index to 30/100 should support a shift in sentiment.

BTCUSD 240922 Daily chart trends

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