Market close yesterday
Following the US ISM production data that was released yesterday and with the program employment report to be released in the US session, the USD is back on the uptrend again as we move from August to September. Equity markets and bonds were sold off yesterday, which also helped maintain control of the US dollar.
On the European news front, production figures remained pretty much the same for August, but China started blocking yet another city, the largest from Shanghai earlier this year. But as we continue to count down to the next Fed meeting in the bigger picture, the dollar continues to hold its appeal as risk trades look rather weak again towards the end of the week. US ISM manufacturing data showed a stable sector, which raised the odds of another 75bp rate hike from the Fed at the next meeting.
The data agenda today
Today the PPI (Producer Price Index) numbers, which will be released shortly, should once again show an increase in European producer price inflation, which will translate into an increase in consumer prices in the coming months. Although the most important event today is the US employment report. Employment change is expected to slow to around 300,000 after jumping above 500,000 last month, although strong numbers would support another strong increase from the FED, which would push the US dollar up.
Volatility increased again yesterday as USD buyers pushed the dollar higher, especially after the US ISM production report. We have opened many trading signals, in oil, gold and forex. We got caught in the higher retracements a couple of times, which were pretty huge, but we ended the day with four winning signals after all, so it was another good day.
By continuing to sell GOLD
Gold continues to remain rather bearish as the odds of another 0.75% hike in interest rates by the FED continue to rise and comments from FED members point this out. Yesterday we opened three Gold signals, two of which closed in profit as the bearish trend continued, while we were caught in an upward retracement with the other Gold signal.
XAU / USD – 15 Minute Chart
Keeping short WTI Oil
Crude oil has turned really bearish this week, losing more than $ 10, with the 20 (green) SMA acting as resistance at the top, showing that the selling pressure is quite strong. Yesterday we decided to open two US WTI crude sell signals, one of which closed in profit while the other hit SL.
US crude oil: 60 minute chart
Cryptocurrencies continue to show uncertainty this week, following the two bearish moves we’ve seen over the past two weekends, which took bitcoin below $ 20,000. BTC continues to trade above and below that level which means there is no direction at the moment, so the cryptocurrency market is waiting for a big event to keep them going.
Ethereum tries to resume the uptrend
Ethereum was one of the more bullish cryptocurrencies during the bullish period up to July and was finding support at the moving averages on the H4 chart, as it was moving higher again in early August. But bearish momentum in the cryptocurrency market sent ETH / USD below these moving averages. Although the 20 SMA (gray) provides support for Ethereum, so it looks like buyers will push above these MAs soon.
ETH / USD – H4
BUT still maintaining BITCOIN bearish
Bitcoin broke below the ascending channel it was trading in for around two months in mid-July and has remained rather weak since then. The moving averages continue to provide resistance at the top, especially the 50 SMA (yellow) and the price continues to move back below $ 20,000, so the situation is not looking very positive.
BTC / USD – 240 minute chart