How College Football Playoff expansion will affect realignment, job security and the future of the sport

College Football Playoff CEOs are in control. As they should be. Because they are not there yet. In this case, the president and prime minister in charge of the game, unhappy with their own conference commissioners, let the expansion process devolve into small-scale territorial infighting.

CFPs have a lot of money available, just not enough opportunities. Many people are talking about the country’s second most popular sport being narrowed down to a regional one.

The SEC has won 12 of the past 16 national championships. It drew two of the best teams in the Big 12 (Texas and Oklahoma) and became a sport about sports. The Big Ten followed, snatching USC and UCLA from the Pac-12.

merge. Never in the history of gaming has the best brands and shows in gaming been concentrated in such a small space (two sessions at the top of gaming). Not only do the SEC and the Big Ten have a monopoly on money, audience, and talent, they also have a monopoly on gaming.

Ultimately, this is not good. In the end, the presidents felt that it wasn’t good enough.

The 11 CFP presidents acted decisively on Friday, voting unanimously to expand from four to 12 teams starting in 2026 at the latest. They did what the commissioners didn’t: agree.

“What motivates the president and me is that we need the opportunity to be more involved in our state’s national championships,” said Mississippi President Mark Keenum, chairman of the CFP Governing Council. It’s not fair to our student-athletes.”

It would also be unfair to fans for the commissioners to continue delaying the process. Four of the five Power Five commissioner positions have had new nameplates since 2020. Three of them — ACC’s Jim Phillips, Pac-12’s George Kliavkoff, Big Ten’s Kevin Warren — voted against the expansion in January over concerns about the SEC’s growing influence.

Then Warren put his Big Ten on his high-priced island and traded for a monster TV that left everyone behind. With the “League” disbanding after the top 10 chased two Pac-12 powers, it’s easy to change those remaining no-votes when the big boys threaten to stay in the Final Four.

The strength of the NCAA tournament is its national appeal. The final week of the regular season has 68 seats and automatic qualifiers that cover the entire country and are spread across Cinderella teams for deep play. The CFP needs a national appeal.

The presidents decided the game couldn’t stand the fortunes (concentrated in two conferences), reorganization and relegation of the country’s other college football teams. The West Coast was left out (mostly the Pac-12’s own fault). Half of the movements (the quintet) were actually an afterthought. There have been enough covert teams of knee-stealing, peer-to-peer commissioners to commit crimes.

Revenue sharing is coming. There may even be a union. Names, images and likenesses have ruled the sport. The public does not understand. CEOs are sick of it.

“its [the Power Two] And everyone else,” AAC Commissioner Mike Aresco said of the SEC and the Big Ten. “It’s pretty obvious. “

If the presidents hadn’t slowed down and created more playoff chances, Congress might have started sniffing for monopolies. So, we have three times as many teams in the national championship race. The playoffs themselves went from three games to 11.

The FBS playoffs will be played on campus for the first time. The ever-threatened Rose Bowl looks like a good fit for 12 teams. God bless former Major League 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby, who long ago predicted that out of the 12 teams would still have 30-35 teams vying for a playoff spot in early November each year, not half of that number one-third or less.

This will increase interest. Unite a country. It’s time for college football to come together.

“It enhances the value of the entire regular season,” Keenum said. “I have full confidence in our commissioners working together. I believe they need some guidance from the board. Now they have.”

Here’s how expanding the CFP field to 12 teams could change the future of the sport.

Income Distribution

Several sources told CBS Sports that this is the next biggest task for conference commissioners and college presidents to tackle. Having to determine what fair compensation for the conference looks like is the last task the CFP started in 2014.

Basically, whatever weight the SEC and the Big Ten put in the room is going to be a huge factor. In the process of expansion, these conferences are trading money for access. They’ll get their money, but the remaining eight games have a better chance in the playoffs. That will be the first time.

Such visits — tripling the field — keep the federal government away from collusion or antitrust allegations of mini-conferences. Those smaller leagues now have more access than ever before. That in itself masks any talk of monopoly.

“The playoffs are key,” Aresco said. “If you have access to these, I think you’ll stay relevant. Your donors will care that your fans will care. Schools will invest because they have a chance to compete. … It’s going to be everything The essential. ”

In 2021, Power Five Conferences will receive $74 million annually from CFP for Power Five Conferences. The G5 allocated $95 million, or about 20 percent of the total annual net distribution. Back when the CFP was created, that percentage was basically considered a number that would prevent prosecution by the G5. With the increase of access rights from 4 to 12, this strengthens the possibility of any legal action.

Going forward, assuming annual revenue from CFP doubles from $600 million per year (four teams) to $1.2 billion (12), here is an educated guess about the future distribution:

  • SEC and the Big Ten Add up to half the total, or $600 million ($300 million each). That’s an additional $16.7 million per year for each school in these leagues.
  • ACC, Big 12 and Pac-12 (depending on member) 30% of the pot, $360 million ($120 million per player). For these schools, that’s about an additional $10 million a year. Another consideration: Perhaps ACC, considering the strength of some of its programs, is on a tier of its own, with revenue somewhere between Power Two and Big 12 and Pac-12.
  • five-person meeting Divide the remaining 20% โ€‹โ€‹of the pot, which is $240 million ($48 million per player). An additional $3.9 million per year for each school in AAC, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West and Sun Belt.

These projections do not include deductions for income distributions for FBS Independents, FCS and NCAA Divisions II and III.

quadratic loss factor

Minnesota in 1960 and LSU in 2007 remain the only two teams to win a national championship. That’s it. in gaming history.

In the extension, the often Be the team that has lost two — or even three — in the playoffs. At that point, it may become who is the hottest at the end of the season, not who is necessarily the best of the year. what does this sound like? You guessed it, March Madness.

Using last year’s CFP ranking seed group, 7 of the 12 teams will make the playoffs with at least two losses, including top-four Big 12 champion Baylor (11-2)! Utah (10-3) will be the Pac-12 champions.

Still, if you speculate that the SEC’s two losing teams and the Big Ten will get priority, you’re way ahead. Here’s what the 12 teams looked like last season:

Goodbye (highest-ranked conference champion)
1. Alabama (12-1)
2. Michigan (12-1)
3. Cincinnati (12-0)
4. Baylor (11-2)

first round
No. 12 Pittsburgh (11-2) * No. 5 Georgia (12-1) – Winner vs. No. 4 Baylor
No. 11 Utah (10-3)* at No. 6 Notre Dame (11-1) – Winner vs. No. 3 Cincinnati
No. 10 Michigan State (10-2) vs. No. 7 Ohio State (10-2) – Winner vs. No. 2 Michigan State
No. 9 Oklahoma State (11-1) at No. 8 Ole Miss (10-2) – Winner vs. No. 1 Alabama

*Conference Champion

Will the adjustment be slow?

This is yet to be determined. The realignment is sure to keep presidents motivated for the good of the game. The change comes as Big Ten Commissioner Kevin Warren continues to push his college president to add four teams from the Pac-12. Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark announced his conference was “open for business.” ESPN and Fox are interested in what the Big 12 and Pac-12 will look like in the future.

Finally, more emphasis will be placed on the success of the conference, which depends on how many teams a league can have out of 12. Simple math will tell you: The more teams a league has overall, the better.

Incorporating this philosophy into the reorganization, it makes perfect sense for the Big 12 and Pac-12 to strengthen their membership.

Cinderella factor

College football almost never has. The Cinderella charm that brought the “crazy” to the NCAA tournament has been lacking in the history of the game. This is a huge hole in college football. Same old, same old. The gap between BYU’s win in 1984 and Cincinnati becoming a CFP in 2021 was 37 years. That’s it. Here’s your list of glass slippers in gaming history.

12 team chances will be there Per year For non-traditional types. If expanded in 2021, the first round would include Utah, Oklahoma and Miss Ole. No. 13 BYU will end after the playoffs.

It’s not exactly St. Peter’s beating Kentucky in basketball, but there’s a reasonable chance of an upset right now. Waiting for a few shocks that shook the whole country. In the end, the best teams may rise to the top — as they did in the Final Four — but it’s a matter of access. College football will be a better product.

Employment security

In a way, coaches are more protected. There are already some mid-professional basketball coaches who have saved 20 years of their jobs by hanging five banners to celebrate just playing in the NCAA Tournament.

These engagement trophies are now part of college football. The added Sun Belt team will be able to maintain that coaching, program and conference for many years. Same thing if an AAC team ran away. Even top five coaches can get longer belts. If a 12-team playoff game existed from the start, Florida would enter the field three straight years from the 2018-20 season. Will Dan Mullen still be behind ESPN’s desk instead of on the sidelines?

Signs that read “College Football Playoff Contenders” will be at some of the outposts. The idea is to open up American games to America. Presidents are in charge. It just took a while.

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