How to Bet Padres vs. Dodgers (September 4)

Padres vs Dodgers odds

Padres probability +140
Odds of the Dodgers -159
Above under 9.5
Time 7:08 PM ET
TV ESPN
Odds via BetRivers. Keep up to date MLB odds here.

The depth of the Los Angeles launch staff will be on display in Sunday’s match at Dodger Stadium, as Los Angeles will send Caleb Ferguson to the mound as an opening for Ryan Pepiot.

San Diego will have one of its best starters in Mike Clevinger on the mound and will still come in as notable underdogs in Sunday Night Baseball.

The Padres might get into a fight as favorable as they do against a ridiculously good Dodgers staff, but can they take advantage of it with Clevinger on the mound?

Same Parlay Game: Padres vs Dodgers

It’s certainly very likely that the Dodgers’ ridiculously talented batting order will come out and enlighten Clevinger by embarrassing the Padres once again, but I think we have some value on a long shot playing with a very different game script.

This parlay of the same game essentially revolves around winning San Diego behind a reasonable Clevinger start, and I think getting +750 for that to happen is definitely a fun long shot to play.

The Parlay: +750 at bet365

  • San Diego Moneyline and 7 Innings Moneyline
  • Less than 10.5 runs
  • Joey Gallo under 0.5 shots

San Diego Moneyline and 7-Inning Line:

The Padres have been far from offensively extinguished by their major acquisitions at the trade deadline. But with this pitching pairing, it’s definitely more likely they’ll stick with the Dodgers than current prices suggest, and as a result, I like the Padres money line as a starting point.

The Padres are unlikely to make a comeback at this point against the Dodgers’ high-leveraged weapons. If the Padres win, it will likely happen because they spawn an initial attack against Ferguson / Pepiot while getting a reasonable exit from Clevinger.

Clevinger pitched at an ERA of 3.43 in his final 44.67 innings, and while he’s anything but an elite pitcher, he could certainly handle a quality exit often enough to give us value on this long shot that revolves around decent performance.

Ferguson plans to open the game for the Dodgers and offers a tough goal for the first 5-6 outs, but I project an advantage with Clevinger vs. Pepiot for the next handful of innings. Pepiot pitched to an ERA of 4.02 out of 31.33 innings in the big leagues this season, with a FIP 5.71, 1.40 WHIP and a xERA above 4.50.

Under 10.5 Racing:

We are really aiming for a quality exit from Clevinger, as I believe the Dodgers pitching situation is still solid enough that the Padres are unlikely to win a high-scoring deal in this contest, especially with their recent pot fights.

Therefore, getting a noticeable increase in odds by playing Under 10.5 on our SGP also makes sense and fits the game script I am looking for in this contest.

Behind the owners are two very good bullpens, although the Padres unit has not performed quite as one might expect for the past 30 days.

That said, the Padres’ bullpen still made 12th best xFIP (3.83) during that interval. With their arms in place, I expect them to manage a better score than forward.

The Dodgers’ bullpen has been fantastic all season and this trend has continued in recent times with the group allowing for an xFIP of just 3.55 in the past 30 days.

This is why we like to get an increased odds by backing San Diego to lead through seven innings because if the Padres have to face the Dodgers’ best relievers along the stretch, our SGP is probably already off the rails.

Joey Gallo under 0.5 shots:

After a reasonably strong start to his Dodger career, Joey Gallo has started to look more and more lost on the plate as he has only landed four hits in his last 31 at-bats.

Gallo eliminated with a ridiculous 48.9% clip during that halftime and on Sunday faces a tough fight against Clevinger, who has historically dominated Gallo by allowing zero hits in eight beats with four strikeouts.

If our other two legs hit here, Gallo should receive a maximum of four beats from his likely spot at the bottom of the lineup, and we run the risk that he won’t be able to do anything in those beats considering the divisions in play.

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