How We Live Bet Steelers vs Browns on Thursday Night Football

After a fun offensive showcase in week 2, Thursday Night Football is back with a much more defensive-focused match in week 3 when the Pittsburgh Steelers take on the Cleveland Browns.

The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between games providing plenty of time to place bets. This season, I’ve built a model to project pace of play across a variety of game scenarios. These include first versus second half as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.

The main advantage of this is for the betting totals. Whether the game will be faster or slower than previously thought, the application is obvious. Faster games will tend to produce more points.

And the Steelers have been one of the most profitable NFL live betting teams over the past two seasons. They have a fairly obvious pacing trend that continues to be true which we will see below.

With all of that in mind, here’s how we decided to tackle the NFL live betting for Steelers-Browns on Thursday Night Football, in addition to the live betting we made.

2 NFL Live Betting Scenarios We bet on Steelers-Browns on Monday Night Football

1) Second time over

Taking over in Steelers games at half-time or around half-time is an almost automatic game for me. In 2021, they played nearly five seconds faster in the second half of matches than the first, despite being a 9-7-1 team.

When we see those divisions with teams that have had very bad records, we can generally give credit for playing from behind. This is not the case in Pittsburgh, which was at the center of the group on average seven or more lower.

This only increased during the first two weeks of 2022, with Pittsburgh’s gap now over six seconds, despite, once again, being slightly below average in time spent behind.

Therefore, I was trying to beat the over at half time, but in a couple of conditions. First, I ideally wanted the number equal to or greater than the pre-match total of 38. Second, I would try to fire if the Browns had a big advantage. They might try to run out of time in the second half if they are in control.

Well, the first half didn’t go as planned, with a surprising level of expertise on both crimes. However, I will trust my pre-match analysis and take control of the live. Weather conditions are slowly improving in Cleveland and both teams should continue to be aggressive given the close score.

The best line I found was 46.5. I got it at -120 on my over bet, and I’m not going to lie to you, it doesn’t necessarily end up being the best line. In live betting, the numbers move fast! A few seconds later, over 46.5 it was -106 on FanDuel and PointsBet even recorded a 46 at -107.

Let’s hope for the best, but it’s a good reminder of how fluid these markets can be. Remember: shop around as much as possible.

2) Props for players: Steelers in the lead

As always, I began my search for props for gamers by looking at ActionLabs’ Props Tool for lines that we showed a pre-game value on. From there, we look for situations where the elements of the game make them even more likely.

This was a little tricky on the first front, with some previous values ​​we had shown getting sucked into the moving lines. One prop that still showed some pre-match value was that of the Donovan Peoples-Jones receptions, at over 2.5. At half-time, that same line was more money (+135), and this is a live bet we’re going to make – Donovan Peoples-Jones over 2.5 receptions.

Cleveland attempted 22 passes in the first half, three of which went his way. Even if he only sees three other targets, he is more likely to catch two.

The same logic was applied to Jacoby Brissett’s rushing yards. While we generally correlate running yards with the leading player’s team, it’s different with quarterbacks. Most of Brissett’s hasty production comes on scramble: works originally named as pass. His pre-match line was 13.5, and if it dropped significantly, we were ready to pounce.

At the beginning of the second half the opportunity presented itself. With three meters of running already, Brissett’s total live runs dropped to 6.5, with the over to -106. That was another live prop bet we were happy to make.

1 Another NFL live betting scenario we were seeing in Thursday night football

Props for gamers: Browns in the lead

We were also looking for an opportunity to take the under on Najee Harris’ fast yards. We had projected him almost exactly to his 54.5 line, but that line increased significantly when he had a great first half.

The Steelers’ second-half pace was partly the result of abandoning the game of running along the stretch, particularly if they fall behind or the match is close. Harris averages just 2.9 yards per transport this season, one yard less than in 2021.

And we’re not the only ones betting live on the NFL this season on Action Network! At the intermission of every Thursday and Monday night football game, my predictive analytics colleague, Nick Giffen, will be live on “Bet What Happens Live With Dr. Nick!”, So be sure to check out the show. .

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