February 6, 2023

The only blemish in the Georgia Bulldogs’ national championship season a year ago was a loss in the SEC championship game. Kirby Smart’s troops have a chance at redemption this weekend as they return to Atlanta to face the LSU Tigers for conference dominance. Very few people had made LSU the SEC title game in their preseason college football betting tips. Given that the Tigers are still viewed as a small climber, it’s no surprise that the odds between LSU and Georgia are tilted heavily in the Bulldogs’ favor.

The following game preview features the college football betting odds, trends, and FEI Index ratings before we share our official LSU vs. Georgia prediction for the SEC championship game.

2022 SEC Championship Game
LSU Tigers (9-3, 6-2 SEC) vs. Georgia Bulldogs (12-0, 8-0 SEC)
Date: Saturday 3 December 2022
Time: 4 p.m. EST
Venue: Mercedes Benz Stadium – Atlanta, GA
Cover: CBS

After being knocked out at home by Tennessee in early October, few could have predicted the Tigers would win the SEC West Division with two weeks to go. QB Jayden Daniels used a massive statistical game against Florida as a launch pad the following week. Wins over Ole Miss and Alabama in subsequent games propelled the Tigers to the top of the division. The regular season ended on a bad note last week as LSU’s college football playoff hopes kick off their game with an upset loss to Texas A&M.

Meanwhile, Georgia literally danced through the entire regular season. The SEC East may be the weaker of the conference’s two divisions, but it takes a truly special team to dominate opponents on a weekly basis like the Bulldogs have done this season. UGA’s biggest scare came on October 1 against Missouri. Since escaping Colombia with a four-point win, Georgia has won every game by double digits. The Dawgs have the best defense in the country and a physically imposing offense led by a veteran quarterback in Stetson Bennett.

Kirby Smart LSU vs Georgia prediction odds college football betting selects SEC championship game
Credit: Derick E Hingle/USA TODAY Sports

All college football betting odds for LSU vs. Georgia can be found at Bovada sports betting

money line: LSU: (+600) | UGA: (-950)
Point distribution: LSU: +17.5 (-110) | UGA: -17.5 (-110)
In total: 52 — About: (-110) | Under: (-110)

College Football FEI Ratings

The table below splits the Fremeau Efficiency Index rankings for both teams involved in this SEC Championship Game matchup. The purpose of the FEI ratings is to represent the points advantage per possession that a team would expect to play on a neutral field over an average opponent. Offense and Defense rankings come from a total of 131 FBS-level teams.

Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) ratings. are herem soccer outsider

team Total FEI (Rk) OFEI (Rk) DFEI (Rk)
LSU 0.76 (12) 1.19 (12) 0.70 (17)
Georgia 1.50 (1) 1.60 (5) 1.51 (1)
  • Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games played in December.
  • Five of the Tigers’ last six games have exceeded the total.
  • For the past decade, the Tigers have had a 28-13-1 ATS when facing an opponent who scores a straight win of 20 points or more.
  • Bulldogs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after conceding under 275 yards overall in their previous game.
  • The UNDER is 6-1-1 in the Bulldogs’ last eight games after a straight win by more than 20 points.
  • 13 of the Bulldogs’ last 15 games against efficient defensive teams that conceded more than 15.70 yards per point have gone UNDER the total.
  • Tigers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five head-to-head encounters against the Bulldogs.

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To say things went badly for LSU in last week’s regular-season finals against Texas A&M would be an understatement. In addition to the loss, Jayden Daniels suffered an ankle injury during the game. When he was spotted in hiking boots afterwards, some wondered if he would even be available for the SEC championship game. Speaking to the media on Thursday, Brian Kelly confirmed Daniels has been training this week and will be playing on Saturday.

Of course, the last thing the Tigers can afford in a matchup against a defensive juggernaut like Georgia is for their star quarterback to limp. In recent weeks, LSU’s offense has returned to some of the inconsistent play that was a major problem earlier in the season. It’s hard to imagine a massive turnaround against a Bulldogs defense that hasn’t conceded more than 22 points in a game all year.

On the other side of the ball, one cannot ignore the fact that the Tigers allowed 274 yards to rush on a Texas A&M offense that has been anemic all season. So it’s hard to doubt Georgia’s offensive line in this duel. The Bulldogs’ quick attack has been a stunner all season. Kenny McIntosh and Daijun Edwards led the way in groundplay averaging 210.5 yards per contest.

If the Tigers are lucky enough to hold their own against the run, Stetson Bennett will simply use targets like tight end Brock Bowers to tear them apart through the air. The fact that the Dawgs will be the de facto home team, playing in Atlanta and backing Georgia as an opposition favorite, is one of the most compelling college football betting tips of the weekend.

GEORGIA COVERS will be our official college football bets LSU vs. Georgia prediction for the SEC championship game.

For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Georgia a 83.0% chance of winning this game straight away.

Bet: Georgia -17.5 (-110 at Bovada Sportsbook)


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